Federal · ID-1 ·See your exact ballot on VoteIdaho
Clear pick Draft: awaiting review
Kaylee Peterson D
There is no independent poll, so the method uses the last election, where Peterson (the same candidate) took 25 percent and no other non-Republican topped 2 percent. Both public polls were paid for by campaigns, and both show Peterson far ahead of Zabel on the real three-way ballot (35 to 6 and 27 to 5). Zabel does well only in hypothetical head-to-heads without Peterson. This was a 46-point race in 2024, so a pick here will not change the outcome.
Method rule 2 · How we pick
One of Idaho's two seats in the U.S. House, which votes on federal laws, taxes and spending; the term is two years. In Ada County, District 1 includes most of Meridian and Eagle, Kuna, and a small part of southwest Boise near Lake Hazel Road. Nearly all of Boise is in District 2. (source)
Republican · incumbent
U.S. Representative since 2019; grew up on a Meridian dairy farm; former high-tech executive and 10-year Idaho state senator.
“Government exists to serve the people, not the other way around.”
Featured statement on his campaign homepage (the page is undated; the date is when it was read). · 2026-09-24 · Russ Fulcher for Idaho campaign website
Democrat
Sixth-generation Idahoan and grassroots organizer from the north Eagle foothills; the Democratic nominee for this seat in 2024.
“I’m not running to represent the interests of corporate lobbyists or out-of-state billionaires. I’m running to represent you.”
About page of her campaign website (the page is undated; the date is when it was read). · 2026-09-24 · Kaylee Peterson for Congress: About
Independent
Retired Air Force major general (31 years of service) who lives in Bayview; a Republican for three decades before leaving the party.
“Idaho is bearing the costs of a Congress that works for party leaders, not for us. I'm running to change that.”
Headline statement on her campaign homepage (the page is undated; the date is when it was read). · 2026-09-24 · Sarah Zabel for Congress campaign website
Constitution
Constitution Party nominee. KMVT reported on Sept. 18, 2026 that he pleaded guilty in Ada County to two counts of possessing child sexually exploitative material, with sentencing set for Nov. 16. His name remains on the ballot.
Polls disagree. Campaign-paid polls are shown but never used to make a pick.
| Pollster and dates | Fulcher | Peterson | Zabel | Gomez | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research 2026-07-28 – 2026-07-30 · 1,213 LV statewide (ID-1 subsample size not published) · ±3.0 (statewide) Campaign poll: Stegner for Idaho (governor campaign) | 48 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| SurveyUSA 2026-07-07 – 2026-07-14 · 480 LV Campaign poll: Zabel for Congress | 45 | 35 | 6 | – | 14 |
Zabel's own poll found her at 6 percent on the actual ballot, with Peterson at 35. If your main goal is to replace Fulcher, the method points to Peterson. If you are voting for Zabel because of her record and positions, that is a legitimate choice. Just know that the head-to-head numbers her campaign cites assume Peterson is not on the ballot, and she is.
Gomez remains on the ballot after pleading guilty to felony charges (KMVT, Sept. 18, 2026). He polled at 0 percent in the one public poll that included him.
| 2024 U.S. House, Idaho District 1 | Fulcher (R) 71.0, Peterson (D) 25.4, Loesby (L) 2.1, Gomez (C) 1.5 | R+45.6 | source |