The experiment

The hypothesis

Idaho is a one-party state. Our hypothesis: it’s more competitive than it looks if non-Republican voters team up behind the one candidate in reach in each race.

This isn’t a push poll or a campaign. It’s a question with an answer we’ll all see on Nov 3. It’s made by one Idahoan, Ronald Baird, with no donations and no coordination with any campaign.

The method

We wrote the rule down before applying it, the way tactical-voting sites in the UK do. In each race:

1. If there’s a recent independent poll (not paid for by a campaign or party), the pick is the non-Republican candidate polling highest in it.
2. If there’s no independent poll, the pick is the non-Republican candidate (or that candidate’s party) that finished highest in the last comparable election.
3. If only one non-Republican is on the ballot, it’s a two-way race: what matters is turnout.
4. If the polls conflict or the answer isn’t clear, the label is “Not sure” and we explain why.
5. Exceptions are made by hand, in writing, in the open.

We show campaign-paid polls, always labeled, but never use them to make a pick. We say “can make this a real race,” never “will win.”

What we don’t do

• We never collect or deliver anyone’s ballot. In Idaho that’s a crime (Idaho Code 18-2324).
• No prizes, rewards or bets for taking part (18-2319, 18-2314).
• We never ask for a photo of your ballot.
• We take no position on ballot measures.
• We take no donations or campaign help, and share data with no one.

The picks

How we’ll know

After Nov 3 we’ll publish the results next to the hypothesis: did the vote for the picks rise compared with 2022 and 2024? We’ll publish the answer honestly either way.