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US Senate
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Todd Achilles I
With the Democratic nominee off the ballot, Todd Achilles is the one non-Republican with a real base of support. The polls disagree sharply on the gap: Risch's own poll has him up 34 points, while the Advanced Targeting Research poll has Achilles up 11 head-to-head. A Boise State political scientist says the gap is most likely down to how each poll decides who is a "likely voter." What the polls agree on is that no other challenger is close to Achilles, so if non-Republican voters come together behind him, this can become a real race. We are not predicting that he wins.
Method rule 1 · How we pick
What this office controls
One of Idaho's two US senators, elected for a six-year term. The Senate passes federal laws together with the House, votes to confirm or reject federal judges, Supreme Court justices and cabinet members, and approves treaties by a two-thirds vote. (source)
Candidates
Jim Risch R
Republican · incumbent
US senator since 2009 and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; former Idaho governor and lieutenant governor. Seeking a fourth term.
“It's a great time for America. I want to continue working with President Trump to get government out of the way. We now have a president who is focused on reducing government spending, returning power to the states, and cutting red tape—issues I have devoted my career to accomplishing.”
Risch campaign press release announcing his 2026 re-election campaign · 2025-04-04 · Jim Risch for U.S. Senate: Senator Risch Announces Re-election Campaign, 2025-04-04
Website
Todd Achilles I
Independent
Army veteran (tank commander and armor officer) and former Democratic state representative from Boise, running as an independent.
“I am running as a candidate for the United States Senate because the two-party system has failed America. ... I reject the left-right divide because the challenge ahead of us is those at the top versus those at the bottom — those in power against the people. I will fight for all Idahoans, not billionaires or extremists.”
Campaign website home page, his statement on why he is running (page is undated; date is when we read it) · 2026-09-24 · Achilles for Idaho (campaign website)
Website
Natalie Fleming I
Independent
Independent from the Treasure Valley with a technology and supply-chain background. Listed on the ballot as "Natalie M Fleming". She also ran for this seat in 2020 and got 3.0%.
“When the earth is well cared for — the earth God gave us — there is plenty for all of us to prosper. That is what I believe. That is what I am running on.”
Closing statement on the About page of her campaign website (page is undated; date is when we read it) · 2026-09-24 · Natalie Fleming for US Senate: About
Website
Matt Loesby L
Libertarian
Software developer and Idaho Libertarian Party regional chair. He ran for the US House (1st District) in 2024 and got 2.1%.
“The US Government is doing all it can to destroy our liberty, our culture, our wealth, and our future. Send me to Congress, so I can slow them down while we rebuild Idaho.”
Home page of his campaign website. The text was written for his 2024 US House run, and the site is still the one he lists for 2026. Date is when we read it. · 2026-09-24 · Matt Loesby for Idaho (campaign website)
Website
Polls
Polls disagree. Campaign-paid polls are shown but never used to make a pick.
Advanced Targeting Research (3-candidate ballot), 2026-09-16
What your vote does
If you support Natalie Fleming
Natalie Fleming is running on values many voters share. But she polled 8 to 9% in the two polls that included her, and Achilles polled 18 to 50% across all of them. If your main goal is a different senator than Jim Risch, a vote for Achilles is the one most likely to count toward that. If you vote for Fleming, you are voting for what she stands for, and that is a legitimate choice.
If you support Matt Loesby
Matt Loesby polled 2 to 5%. If you are a libertarian voting to send a message, your vote does that. If you would mainly like to see Risch replaced, Achilles is the challenger with enough support to make that possible. He is also running as an independent, outside both parties.
If you support David Roth (withdrawn)
David Roth won the Democratic primary, then withdrew. His name will not be on the November ballot, so there is no Democrat to vote for in this race. The choices are Risch, Achilles, Fleming and Loesby.
If you’re a Republican who’s undecided
If you have voted for Jim Risch before and are weighing your choice this time, read both men in their own words above. Achilles is running as an independent, not as a Democrat. Whichever way you go, the choice is yours to make, and we respect it.
Still being checked (6)
- Who paid for the Advanced Targeting Research poll. The memo says no candidate commissioned it, and that is all it says.
- That the March Public Policy Polling survey was paid for by the Achilles campaign. Wikipedia says so, but the PPP memo does not name a client.
- The Fleming (9) and Loesby (2) numbers in Risch's August Peak Insights poll come from Wikipedia, which cites a reporter's post on X. The news story we cite confirms only Risch 52, Achilles 18.
- The Bullfinch sample size and margin of error (608 LV, ±3.9 for August; 774 RV, ±3.5 for May–June) come from Wikipedia. The Bullfinch pages we could read did not show them.
- Not listed in the poll table: two earlier polls that included David Roth (Peak Insights, June 6–7, for the Risch campaign, and a Change Research ballot from July 28–30). Roth is no longer on the ballot.
- The official SoS candidate list shows Roth's withdrawal dated Sept 1, 2026. News reports say he filed the form Aug 28, before the Sept 4 deadline. Either way his name is off the ballot.
Sources (9)